This is going to be the year of Gordon Brown. For more than a decade we have faced the likelihood of him becoming prime minister sooner or later. Now it is a racing certainty he will be prime minister in 2007. June is regarded as the most likely time. So what will it be like to be ruled this man?
Over the weekend, Mr Brown - or someone very close to him - gave a detailed forecast .
It was claimed that we are going to get a ‘humbler’ and more ‘austere’ administration. It is easy to believe the ‘austere’ part. No more holidays with the Bee Gees or at palazzos in Tuscany, like high-living Tony Blair. But modest?
Even if one bends over and holds one’s breath for 30 seconds, it is impossible to imagine Mr Brown being modest. On the contrary, far more than Mr Blair, he is convinced that he knows best and that anyone who does not agree with him is either stupid or can be written off as a political enemy. The Chancellor’s absence of modesty could well be one of the grimmer aspects of his coming leadership.
Other claims of the Brown camp are that Gordon will give back independence and power to civil servants; that he will appoint a cabinet “of all the talents” and that there will much less ‘spin’.
The irony is that all these claims are, themselves, spin. They are all misleading and the deception begins to emerge when one looks at just some of the detail. A ‘cabinet of all the talents’ is meant to include the ‘big beasts’ of the political jungle, whether they are friends or not.
But the men and women who Mr Brown apparently intends to appoint are little-known outside Westminster and consist largely of his cronies. Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper and Ed Milliband are hardly household names but they are Brown supporters and are, apparently, odds-on to be given high office. His pal, Alistair Darling, is touted as the coming Chancellor of the Exchequer. Another Scottish ally, Douglas Alexander is suggested as Transport Secretary. These are hardly the great stars of our political firmament.
The well-known Labour politicians – talented or otherwise - are more likely to be outside the cabinet. If, as seems likely, Charles Clarke, David Blunkett, Stephen Byers, John Prescott and Alan Milburn are not offered places in the cabinet, they will certainly be invited to appear on radio or TV when they have something critical to say.
Gordon Brown’s time as prime minister is likely to have a ‘left-over’ feeling. He will be like the turkey remains heated up on Boxing Day. Those men who follow dominant prime ministers rarely emerge fully from the shadows of their predecessors. Alec Douglas-Home was an anti-climax after Harold Macmillan. Jim Callaghan was an amusing digestif that followed the main course of Harold Wilson. John Major looked no higher-ranking than a colonel after Field Marshal Thatcher.
Gordon Brown is different from any of these. He is undoubtedly highly-motivated and intelligent. But like anyone appointed prime minister by his party after it has been in power for many years, he will look like a substitute brought on after the star player has been taken off through injury. His position brings inherent disadvantages. He cannot claim, as Blair did for years, that all the problems of the country have caused by the previous administration. And he won’t be able to assert that he has some brilliant new policy for solving the country’s ills. If he has such an policy, people will ask why didn’t he suggest it before?
Some of the major political figures in our history have stood for big ideas: Aneurin Bevan for state control, Margaret Thatcher for free enterprise. But what does Gordon Brown stand for? The New Labour muddle that has already been the dim, guiding light for Britain for the last decade. We already know that it has led to higher taxes and has not countered rising crime or heavy welfare dependancy. Yes, Mr Brown is credited with keeping inflation low and balancing the books. But that is not good enough. The whole culture and civilisation of Britain is at stake. Most people think Britain is in a bad way and getting worse. Gordon Brown will only offer more of the same government control, targets, taxes and regulations that led to this.
As a ‘left-over’ prime minister, Mr Brown does at least have one advantage: he can take us out of Iraq. Everyone knows that the invasion was Tony Blair’s idea. Mr Blair has refused to take us out because that would be admitting he was wrong in the first place. Mr Brown will have no such problem. Not that he will gain much liking from an army which he has systematically denied sufficient funds.
But the biggest problem that Mr Brown will face as prime minister is the old one – the one that caused him to be passed over when Mr Blair beat him to the leadership of the Labour Party. He lacks charm. He lacks the easy, likeable personality of Tony Blair. The British public can be very superficial – even frivolous – in its view of leaders. It decides as much on the basis of personalities as policies. And Gordon Brown doesn’t do personality. His premiership will be a duller affair than that of Mr Blair. There may be fewer scandals but there will also be less charisma. Mr Brown’s premiership is likely to be heavy-going and he will surely struggle to win the next election.
It will be a curious time with this dour man in charge. When the Prime Minister comes on our television screens, all around the country there will be scuffles as people compete to get hold of the remote controls to choose which channel to change to.
(The above is the unedited version of my article in the Daily Express today.)
Posted by James Bartholomew • Indexed in Politics
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You are too kind to Brown.
He has not controlled inflation -- only the way in which it is calculated. And he has not balanced the books -- except by off-balance-sheet accounting for which we shall pay dearly for many years.
As for his other financial genius moves, he has badly (possibly terminally) damaged private pensions, sold much of our gold reservres at a market low, allowed his Tonyness to agree larger payments to the EU and, recently, sold Westinghouse (BNFL) to Toshiba just before the company won a $60 billion contract with China.
Finally (I wish!), he has participated in the greatest disorganisation of public services I have ever encountered in this country.
Posted by: Ian at January 6, 2007 06:27 PM